This Is a Winning or Losing Moment/Confessionals

Day 34
"nyuchi"

- So yep, i did THAT!! Xx after my messy night revealing the idol i had 2 find a way to recover 😂😂 so i made a fake idol and decided 2 publicly play it so no1 wld go against me... then i msged every1 saying "PPL R RLY VOTING AGAINST ME 2 CHECK IF THE IDOL IS REAL HA, LOL 😂😂😂" so they wld be too scared to try that move. and now i have the idol for f5, so here i come 2 the f4!! ❤ ❤ xx

"nyuchi"

- Right now, it's clear that Roisin is the frontrunner. Hals is the only one who stands a chance against her in the end. Even though Jake, Jack, Roisin, and I all said in our chat that we were going to vote Hals, I'm starting to worry that Roisin may try to pull a fast one on us and actually use her idol on Hals. No one would vote for her because she's been flaunting the idol, and at that point all she has to do to win is beat Hals at the FIC, which would probably happen tbh. So now I'm wondering if doing a 3-1-1 or even a 3-2 vote (3 on Hals 1-2 on Roisin) would be the best way to ensure that Roisin doesn't make it to the end

"nyuchi"

- yesss that vote went as planned! i am so so so so elated.

roisin's clownery was expected to a degree. she was pushing too hard to convince us she had an idol when if she didn't, she wouldn't care. good for her.

with vince's bullseye, roisin's idol, and my own idol, legit three people are ""vulnerable"" at this tribal or so they think; ideally, i can win immunity, or have vince give me immunity, or just keep immunity from jack in general. hals is okay to go too, but jack is simply better in challenges. if i won immunity and played the idol on hals, i think i'd be able to cirie jack out of this game and legit shock everyone.

from there, it won't be too hard to turn everyone on roisin at F4; so long she doesn't win, i think it'll be 3-1 for her. like legit i might have a route to FTC and it's so weird. i did a decent job of really controlling the last vote and i need to keep doing that from now until final two to have a better winning case.

rn the cast is definitely plagued by ""big moves"" mentality. everyone is a little unsure of the game they've played due to the three sides dynamic and want to play a dominant late-merge game to do that, leading to some irrational or risky choices, such as hals abandoning jack or matthias trying to work with my allies against me.

i'm of course also under this mentality, but information is power and no one knows about my idol so i'll ideally be able to trick everyone left into an outcome they don't want to mess with their chances and bolster my own! i also want my goat vincent blindsided so we're even at two blindsides 🙂 from there, it's just showing the jury some of my subtle but v impactful moves this season, like prompting dovile to leak the alliances and split og hwadze at the merge, fracturing the anti-drew majority at F8 when they came for me and taking out a threat, etc. things that might need some explaining, but are ultimately true!

i might have a shot. i guess we'll see! tbh i probs don't but i'm trying to be optimistic!!

Day 35
"nyuchi"

- so someone is probably going to be cirie'd this round and while i know it's not me, i want it to be jack ideally. it'll be hard to accomplish because this is exactly his type of challenge to win, but if i can keep immunity from him, it'll work. in any F4 combo, i think i can make F3 since everyone has their eyes on roisin now, but i'd prefer to sit in F3 with hals and vincent than jack and vincent. it's not crucial for my game, but it's preferable.

if vincent wins immunity > he gives it to me and i can play my idol on hals. jack goes.

if hals wins immunity > i can play my idol on myself and jack goes.

if roisin wins immunity > i have to get her to sync her idol play with my own in some weird way and that won't be cute.

if jack wins immunity > hals goes. it's not the worst for my game, but jack is more ideal.

if i win > idol is played on hals.

so i'll probably drink a cup of caffeinated tea and get to three hours of posting and hope i can beat jack in this. it's p important, but i'm also EXHAUSTED from tech week and IB exam prep so the probability of me being at the top of my endurance game is relatively low. 😕 hoping for the best, expecting the worst!

"nyuchi"

- I really want to win the challenge, and I believe if I try hard enough I could, but I'm not sure if it's in my best interest. On one hand, I don't want Roisin to win and play her idol on Hals. On the other hand, if I win I'll alienate one of Jake and Jack when I give the immunity away to the other one. I think it's a risk worth taking, so I'll go ahead and try my hardest to win.

Day 36
"nyuchi"

- jake and roisin have both told me they have "plans" but why do u need a plan when all u gotta do is vote out the guy ive been saying is the big threat for DAYS and has gotten confirmation about that from the jury! theres only 2 ppl they can vote... idgi. i hate having my fate be in their hands. also vincent is SO condescending, he's lucky he has that immunity....

"nyuchi"

- Roisin failed at 2143 and now she can't guarantee both herself and Hals safety! Two Messes and Vincent [Jack, Jake, Vincent] doesn't need to turn on each other!

"nyuchi"

- i THINK IM actually turning vincent.. not promises yet but fingers crossed that this works out for me if jake's idol is legit then i called that at like f7... kinda... so im claiming my official title as a psychic.. being cirie'd out would suck tho

"nyuchi"

- fuck

"nyuchi"

- I hate everything i flopped that challenge and waste my time so now everything has gone wrong 😞 x

"nyuchi"

- so new plan - i’ve told both hals and vince about my idol and were going to try to blindside roisin and break her correct voting streak by telling her the vote is back on hals and that we’re doing it 3-2. that way next round roisin will think it’s a 2-2 dynamic and that i backstabbed them to flip to hals xoxo.

"nyuchi"

- oops okay so like... hals got it to be 4-1 with jack going, making my idol play boring asf. if it’s a F3, i want a better case against roisin—hence why it’s important for her to vote minority for once or to be blindsided by a result. so vincent and i are telling her we are voting hals so she’ll join in, thinking it’s 4-1 hals. in reality, i’ll vote jack, vincent and roisin will vote hals and i’ll negate both of their votes for a 0-2. ideally, when jack goes - roisin’s winner arc will be disrupted by her first blindside and she’ll think it’s a 2-2 dynamic at F4, with her and vince against me and hals, rendering unable to see that vince and i are a duo and that we would gun for her with hals. basically we’re taking a simple 4-1 and making it 0-2 to add a little bit of flare to the idol play, blindside roisin, and set her up to leave next round or to at least cooperate with us against hals if we think it is a F3

"nyuchi"

- every1 is out 4 me, Vincent has been trying 2 get me to play my idol on Hals so they can all vote me 🙄 and jack tried 2 do the same thing!! Vincent is the most two faced person ever and I hope it all comes crumbling down 4 him 🤪 all I know is that I HAVE 2 win immunity next omg 😅😢😫 xx

"nyuchi"

- So i found out jake and vincent r purposefully misleading me 2 make me vote in the minority 2 weaken my case at ftc 😞 so allow them. ik if i go to f4 with hals and jake then i am gone b4 ftc if i don't win immunity so my last ditch attempt is 2 make a fake item blocker cos they all knew i went 2 the hunter's lodge... ugh idk i hope i can do something 😞 x

Day 37
"nyuchi"

- so yesterday was a MESS. now that the show is over, i can kind of reflect on the chronology of everything that happened.

so the vote is 4-1 jack, meaning roisin is voting correctly for the millionth time and cementing her strategic status. i suggested to vincent that we concoct a plan to get her to vote minority and blindside her with the idol play so we can better sabotage her at F4--the one that i posted in my last confessional. it was working too and roisin's ""i need to vote majority regardless of whether it is good for my game or not"" mentality meant she would vote hals even if she wanted jack out.

then she messages me questioning me and i talk to vince and i'm like tf. my thought process was she could be considering idoling hals, so i mentioned the strategic possibility of 2-2-1 on roisin so that if she did, we'd be able to idol her out.

then vincent, thinking he's not a snake-goat, decides to TELL roisin because he thinks she, the person who has voted correctly EVERY TIME, is the only person he can beat. so now she's confronting me, he leaks my idol to her and then she reveals a motherfucking item blocker from the lodge and i'm just like welp.

so hals and i, my new duo, went to WORK to make sure we could still cirie jack out. i played kinda shamelessly and went as far as to say if i was upset about the game i wouldn't perform well and that i would make sure my entire idol speech was shading her to the jurors for making a petty move and hals made sure to say if she left being lied to, she would be the most bitter juror and sway her friends against roisin so between that, our plan to cirie jack worked. it did and i'm so happy. like i now led the charge on both the F6 and F5 votes and if i can do the same for the F4 vote, i might stand a chance.

then because results were later, legit everyone got to have a strategy session with jack on where their game is at and their chances with the jury and now vincent realized just how terrible his play was (PART MOTHERFUCKING TWO) and has either crawled back to me or fake crawled back. i hate being so negative but like he keeps sabotaging me and trying to drag me down to goat status with him, which still hasn't happened or at least i don't think it has.

the consensus is roisin has played the most solid strategic game but followed more than she led. she never set a target, only followed others', even if it wasn't beneficial for her game. she's played wonderfully though, so her winning is a cute outcome.

hals hasn't played a bold or great strategic game and doesn't stand out, but survived when all of her allies/friends were cut off--and they're sitting in the jury so she easily has 2-3 locked votes. i'd be happy with her winning because i adore her, but i'm a bit of a selfish bitch so if i could take the title myself that'd be a lot cuter.

vincent might get a vote or two, but his social was too yikes. i tried to explain that to him and he legit said ""my social has and always will be my strength"". like he's likable and all, but he has too much of an ego sometimes and it really bothered people ala touchy subjects.

then there's me and idk my chances. like i have no clue. jack dubbed me ""3rd likeliest"", but there are also things he doesn't know about my game that would be highlighted in my speech. so it's becoming increasingly clear to me that i've played decent, but the jury doesn't see my game and if my FTC performance illuminated it to them, they might be able to--in which case i might stand a chance against hals if i could win drew, dovile, jack, louise, and roisin over. i have a terrible feeling it would be 3-3-2 and vincent would decide tbqh. idk though. i'm kinda getting increasingly downtrodden about the game, just because it's coming to an end and strategically, i needed a F2. so we'll see i guess. it sounds like i've advanced to FTC regardless, just because both hals and roisin acknowledge each other as their biggest threats to win. i just need to win FIC and cement that, because four challenge wins is not a bad look and i have done quite a bit so it's just about showing that to the jury sjdfkhjkfs.

hoping for the best, expecting the worst.Jake

"nyuchi"

- reflective vibes part two today. vince, hals, and i have just decided roisin is going so long we can sabotage her at FIC in some way !!

on a more personal note - i feel bad i heard from hals that vince cried because of something i said the other day when we were heated over the cirie situation and idk what, but like i feel terrible rn because i do like him as a person but within the game we just REALLY didn't vibe well. but yeah - from here on out positive vibes. merge got too stressful and ugly for me at times and i'm not here for that anymore!!

we also talked a lot about jury vibes and we've acknowledged hals has a few locked votes. she and i both think the other will win but vince could steal quite a few votes because his game is better than what it's been depicted as.

Day 38
"nyuchi"

- so atm i feel like the challenge is going ok cos i did almost as well as i cld have in 20 questions ( i cld have done it in 8 instead of 9 but that's just luck :/) and i spent a lotttttt of time on my manga and i think it looks rly gd 😍 my puzzle score shld b good enough 2 at least get 2nd the only thing i havent done is endurance which i will do tomoz since i have a day off 😞 i legit need 2 win tho every1 has literally told me that if they win immunity they're sending me home, even vincent now who thought i cld be his goat, so it's so important that i win!! i hope i can pull it out the bag ❤ xx

"nyuchi"

- praying i can win this challenge because if i don’t, i might lose my chance to win. blocking immunity from roisin is keeping my options open and not letting paranoia guide my actions.

that being said - i am so preoccupied with like my craziest school/show schedule yet that challenges are unrealistic.

hoping i can win manga & puzzle and take second on endurance for a win. ahhhh!

"nyuchi"

- omg! I did it!! I may haven’t spent legit a whole day on the endurance when I cld have won in an hour but oh well 😅 it feels great to know that I have got 2 final tribal council with no votes against me and having voted in the majority every time 😃 so I know that whatever happens from now on I can be proud 😊 but the decision I gotta make now is sooooo peak and honestly allow that like on one hand I have my closest ally and friend in the game Hals, but she’s a massive social threat 😞 and then I have Jake but he has had quite a similar game 2 mine without causing as much hurt 2 the jury, so I rly don’t know where to go so it’s hectic rn 😞 even Vincent cld pick up some votes, so shld I vote him out? Uhh idk I’m in a crump situation rn and I’m gna lose the jury vote of whoever I send there so allow 😞 it’s gna be a battle 2 win and I know that, but I’m pumped! 💙 xx

"nyuchi"

- time to manipulate some bitches and pray! i'm about to play every side and every angle because the immediate vibe i'm getting is that it's me against hals after roisin wins immunity and that's not a cute vibe at all.

with vince, i need to sell loyalty and friendship, or just convince him i'm a pawn in whatever master plan he wants to do to fight the goat perception. he's even willing to attract votes so he can kill it in a tiebreaker and sell that, so that can be exploited in some way!! ideally, i could 3-1 hals that way or even 2-2 him, but i do want my ftc goat with me so i need him there--by the same measure, lying to hals would not be the best route considering i'd be sending her to the jury v bitter and with a lot of sway.

within roisin, i need to convince her that her jury management was so atrocious that taking someone with really solid bonds to jurors (hals) is a recipe for disaster! i've even typed up a paragraph to send her:

""i guess i’ll just make my case!!

i think you are 10x better suited going to finals with me than hals

your strength is your domination of the game and your weakness is jury management. have i played a solid game? arguably maybe. but the jury doesn’t adore me. some of them have even unfriended me! hals on the other hand has three jurors that already love her. in a final tribal of eight jurors, that’s three votes and honestly, louise is pretty upset with you so that’d be four right there against hals simply because her social game was stellar! all she needs is ONE more person and she’s already beat you. considering her underdog arc, i don’t think that’d be too hard to sell, especially because she stood by her allies when you abandoned yours (dovile/louise) and the jury might simply respect that more. all vince would have to do is attract one vote to make it 4-3-1 or 4-2-2 and i’d really hate to see you lose because you made a mistake here and i’m telling you right now voting me out would be a mistake!!""

hals - then there's hals. i didn't want her to go, but it's the best route for survival at this point. but this could be the foundation of a winning game because her sway with jurors could really work against roisin, especially if i could manipulate roisin into lying to her, leaving her bitter at roisin and potentially getting me every vote she would have had and more. it's an insane prospect, but with the right dose of finessing, i might be able to gain some serious sway with jurors!! idk this round is a MESS and we're twelve minutes in

"the plot thickens and i am not playing around anymore. i will legit scratch my way to ftc if i have to.

vince wants 2-2 of him and hals so he has his hvv2 case / ftc boost. i'm confused by it, but it won't stop me from taking advantage of someone who does not want to vote me.

meanwhile hals is willing to fight to ftc with me because i detract votes from roisin. she knows it's advantageous for her because i could lose roisin some of the five votes she may have against hals.

then roisin is being the definition of unresponsive to my pleas. borderline hostile. short responses. it's final four and i get she sees herself in a power position, but like - engage with people who are fighting for their lives in this game?

as for my strategic approach, my versatility could save me if it wasn't for vincent's wild off-setting plans. i suggested we could let ro vote me and hals vote him and throw our votes on hals for a 2-1-1, but he's so set on the heroism of winning a tiebreaker that he's decided against it.

meanwhile hals is willing to 2-2 vince so that's a backup route.

my ideal outcome is hals leaving. i think if she was on jury and on my side, i might have a significantly better chance against ms. roisin - but the strategic limitations posed by vince and the refusal of roisin to cooperate limit the possibility of that. it might get to the point where i have to accept a ftc wherein i lose, which is frustrating. right now, if i can just get it through to vince that it's better to make ftc than to make a story, i might pull this off but i have to walk on eggshells because every vote counts!"

- Jake

"nyuchi"

- I have no idea how this vote is gonna end up and this is legit like the two busiest days of my year coming up rn so... this is gonna be fun

"nyuchi"

- so i definitely got hals to vote vincent i think which is a great start. now across the time i have today i just have to make one of roisin or vincent does not vote me, meaning they vote hals and i become set for FTC.

if i do pull off a 2-1-1 or a 3-1, it might cost me the game. i can tell hals really trusts or me or is at least pretending to and it breaks my heart a little because we have grown really close across the past few days so voting her out won’t be an easy choice, especially when i have to pretend i’m on board for vincent because legit if i don’t hold that lie i could be getting a vote against me and even though she’s already voted, she could convince roisin to and force me into a tiebreaker. as more people submit, i’ll be straightforward but lying at a vote that means this much to all of this is essential to my ideal FTC but also a perfect way to burn a juror so this is a winning or losing moment either way.

and this is why roisin had to lose FIC dhshdhd. luckily more than anything else this round is exposing her follower mentality and if i go to FTC, i hope to do the same because i’m starting to think that while i voted majority less, i also never knowingly voted something that wasn’t good for my game

"nyuchi"

- i’m so nervous about this round. i’m basically trying to manipulate each of the remaining people to vote separately and get a 1-1-1 so i can determine an outcome but all it takes is for people to compare notes or prioritize each other and i could be exposed and get final juror this is not cute. i started drafting a FTC speech last night and i’m so invested ughhhh i legit wrote four pages 😕

"nyuchi"

- lmfao hals is doing the exact same thing i am and it's my aesthetic. she wants me to vote vince so she and roisin 2-1-1 me

"nyuchi"

- Right now it feels like Roisin and I are deciding the winner between Hals and Jake. I believe that it's possible to win against them but I'd have to pull off a really hard move. Like if I beat Hals in a tiebreaker, that would make me look really good. Well except for the part where I could lose the tiebreaker. I really wanted to go for it but it turns out that getting people to vote the goat is not very easy. It will probably end up being a 3-1 on Hals, which still works out but then I wouldn't win.

A major issue with my game is that I kept suggesting crazy moves but then chickened out and went with the safe option. Every time I want to go and do one I say I won't back down because I need one huge move. But then I worry that I've fallen for Probst's big moves propaganda and I realize it could easily go wrong so I just go with Jake and do the easy vote. So this time I really want to make the move

"nyuchi"

- i love casual panic attacks. last status i got was that roisin was undecided but leaning hals so there is a chance i might survive this 3-1 and epitomize roisin’s follower mentality which is just yesssss. if not i’m the busiest bitch irl so peep me placing 4th

"nyuchi"

- Apparently Jake is acting rude to Roisin, saying things like "congrats at 2nd". I really hope this comes back to bite him and I win Kariba 😮

"nyuchi"

- harrumph 😕 honestly there was no right decision this vote and i was burning a jury vote no matter what 😞 i decided 2 go with voting Jake cos i feel his middle of the road physical-based and idol-finding game was a bigger threat to my style whilst Hals really has nothing of the sort. Ik she has friends on the jury but Jake has contacts with both original tribes and directly threatens all my selling points... me: "i won 2 immunity challenges" Jake: "i won 3 🙂" me: i found an idol Jake: "so did I" me: "I directly had a part in your vote out" Jake: "so did I but u don't hate me 4 it 🙂" like... .ugh idk 😞 Hals was very inactive for a lot of the game and didn't even speak 2 some ppl... and if the jury thing im a snake then going 2 the end with my day 1 f2 will hopefully prove them wrong 😀 what was dead cert was that i wasn't giving some1 who bullied me and blackmailed me with their jury vote a free pass to FTC 🙂 ❤ Xx

Day 39
"nyuchi"

- ahhhh. making thirty-nine days is absolutely insane.

my game this season wasn't my best, but i'm p proud of it and it might actually lead to a win? i think walking into the merge not knowing drew, roisin, vince, hals, or matthias definitely prevented me from playing as aggressively as i wanted to, but maybe that helped me go utr and pull off some cute late-game moves as well as some stealthier early merge ones. so i might actually have a chance but i dont want to be too hopeful. the jury may be divided on roisin. louise called her a goat. becky thought she was a waste of a spot. jack thought she'd sweep at ftc. so like irdk what people think of me but if i could win omfg that'd be a dream. i don't see it happening, but it's better than my last jury experience where i was so hated that i like was just upset all the time so that's cute!!

i met a lot of faves across this season too. i legit adore almost everyone on the jury and see myself being friends with all of them after this is over!! my rites kinda speak from themselves, but i really learned a lot from them on how to approach these and love my kariba family.

"nyuchi"

- Day 39?! That's 36 more days than I expected to last. Just kidding, it's only 30 more days. I always thought about how cool it would be if I made it to the final tribal council, but it never seemed possible. How could a flop like myself make it this far?? Well I found out that I'm not a flop 🙂.

The FTC will be very close, I'm thinking Jake's going to win but it's still really anyone's game. I know I have some good points as to what I want to say, so I think I could do better than I expected. I don't think I'm winning, but I'm still going to give it my all at the end!\Vincent

"nyuchi"

- I’m rly sad this is coming 2 an end 😞 it’s been a lot of fun and i’ve made so many friends here. From day 1 on Hwadze me and Hals clicked and i am grateful that I had her going through the season even if we didn’t always agree on things. From my rivalry with Kiley pre-swap to my last minute feud with Jake it certainly hasn’t been plain sailing but I am proud with some of the moves I pulled off! Like telling every1 I guess Fei Long for the idol, only to save that for myself to guess and then get the idol 😀 to then bluffing my way from f7-f5 with my idol. The whole cast was amazing to play with and I enjoyed all of their company. This game has taken over my life!! But i am glad it did and I definitely won’t forget it ❤ xx

"nyuchi"

- i'm crying i tried to look at past winning speeches to determine how much to write and legit they range from 1,000 to 5,000 words and i don't know what to do. i've written two at this point and one is close to 3k words but legit i don't see the jurors reading that much because i'm bland in my speech tbqh so idk what to do.

"nyuchi"

- so i have one more response and then my ftc performance is over.

it's been a lot of work, and i'm sad to say i just don't see it paying off.

per the speeches, matthias appears to be a locked juror for roisin. by the same measure, louise could be one for me.

1-1-0

then you have hals and jordan/becky, who both posted basically ""roisin has my vote but jake here's a bone and if you work it, maybe"" speeches.

3-1-0

then there's dovile/dan/jack, who are harder to read. each were more balanced in their assessment, but i just see them all leaning towards roisin. because i've written so much, maybe i'm lucky enough to snag one of their votes.

5-2-0

it leaves drew's vote kinda irrelevant, but i just see this being 7-1-0 or 6-2-0. i'm just spending my last bit of time here really trying to connect with vincent on the off chance that i somehow get a 4-4-0 and he becomes a swing. but nonetheless, it's all coming to an end.

i hate that this is such a negative confessional, but it's one that sees a sad ending to the game - i worked insanely hard, but it just wasn't enough and that's okay i guess. it'll just be about finding a silver lining amidst a non-ideal outcome and remembering this experience for what was exceptional and fun about it ❤ it's just a game and i met a lot of people i've grown to like, so i'll find happiness in that rather than sadness in what could have been. happy vibes ❤

"nyuchi"

- 4-4: a tie!! first time in three years according to vincent and i’m shook that my FTC performance did THAT. maybe my game did too but legit some people who were leaning against me voted me and i’m so 😍

it makes me feel a lot better about the game i played because obv in a way we co-won. now we’re just one vote away and i’m insanely nervous.

vince and i had a bit of history going into this season and a lot coming out of it. we were ride or die but we argued a lot. i was forced to write an entire speech on why i thought he shouldn’t win, then had to write one on why he was actually exceptional. i lean towards the latter personally though he did make a lot of mistakes.

but i know as a juror he walks in leaning towards an outcome but bases it on the better response. my fear is that he leaned against me because he’s voted me to win before but i’m really hoping i can pull it off.

not to mention - if he was added to ponderosa, people who he likes (e.g. hals) who voted roisin might sway him so it’s legit nerve wracking. something is telling me i didn’t earn his vote but if i had to lose here, 5-4 after a tie is probs the way id pick 😊